June, 2010

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Commodities Spread Betting Markets Look to Move Higher

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

The gold spread betting market continues to grind higher and the metal has had another go a breaking above the $1,265 mark. That is the third attempt in the last week and spread traders are closing many of their buying positions.

In the short term, the bulls will be looking for a close above $1,260 per ounce very soon. If that does not happen then the probabilities may start to favour a price reversal. Note that you can speculate on the gold market to go up or down with companies like IG Index and FinancialSpreads.com.

Like gold, the crude oil spread betting market has also continued its general move higher although the expiry of the monthly futures contracts has recently added $1.50 to the price.

For well over a year now the forward-month contracts have tended to be at least a $1.00 higher than the expiring month. This price behaviour is having an odd impact on those long-term traders who are spread betting on crude oil prices to drop.

Although the outright ‘headline’ price of a barrel of crude oil has hardly moved in a year, a trader who had been shorting the market would be $12 per barrel better off. Naturally the reverse is true for those who have been consistently long of the oil market.

Overall though we are in the middle of a rather wide $69 to $78 range. As the market continues to move between these two points, traders seem quite happy to sell as the price approaches the $78 level. A word of warning though, if the oil market does break out beyond the $78 level then we could see a sharp upwards shift in price. Anyone selling the market should take care.

It is a simple fact that when speculating on the financial markets there are ever present risks, irrespective of the investment format. It doesn’t matter whether you are using CFDs, spread betting on commodities or investing in stocks and shares, you can lose money on your investment.

But what options are there for those wanting a fast, flexible method of investment which also offers a wide variety of markets and the all important risk management tools?

Here in the UK, and increasingly across the international community, many think that spread betting provides an answer.

When talking about investments though, as stated above, there are risks. All forms of speculation and investment have a negative side. If you spread bet you can lose more than you initially invested.

It is useful to note a few other points that the following warning notice covers, ‘Spread betting does carry a high level of risk. Before spread betting, please ensure that spread betting matches your investment objectives. Familiarise yourself with the risks that are involved. Where necessary, seek independent advice’.

When financial spread betting there are plenty of other positives, for example, you can buy and sell when spread betting ie speculate on markets to rise or fall.

When opening or closing a position with a financial spread betting firm there aren’t any broker’s fees.

A large range of markets are on offer. Investors can trade on a significant number of markets from popular indices such as the Dow Jones or FTSE 100, to the soft commodities, minor forex and bonds markets. Naturally you can trade both the oil and gold markets.

European Spread Betting Markets Tumble

Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

Markets across Europe tumbled as weak consumer confidence numbers from the US compounded continuing fears of European debt worries and the state of the global recovery.

FTSE 100 sold down to 4899, nearly a 3% retracement before making something of a recovery, but still closing down over 2.5% Germany’s Dax traded lower by 3% as negative sentiment intensified as client’s dumped stock and shied away from riskier assets.

Clients had been edgy this morning after the Dax opened surprisingly weak, setting the tone for a nervous morning session. Clients reduced positions amid light volumes causing European markets to quietly drift 1.5% lower. Heavyweight sectors Banks and Miners dragged the market lower, as the familiar round of global growth concerns returned to the fore, and investors retreated to the safety of the dollar and gilts.

Just as the market was hoping for something to spark a bounce from the day’s lows, clients were hit with a sucker punch as a worse than expected consumer confidence number hit the wires. Clients seem particularly concerned at the negative trend being set from US macro data after last week’s disappointing homes and employment data.

As investors struggle to find positives in the market, concern remains over how much lower we could go. With the FTSE now trading just above 4900 many see the market teetering just above significant technical levels of support which if breached could see much more aggressive retracements round the corner.

 

Please remember that Spread Betting and CFD Trading are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that could quickly exceed your initial outlay. These products may not be suitable for everyone, so please make sure you fully understand the risks involved.

Spread Betting and CFD comments by Nick Serff, Market Analyst, City Index.

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Neither City Index not Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.

Record Low for Euro-Swiss Franc Rate

Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

Looking at yesterday’s markets there were no major news items to speak of so moves appear to be a case of markets falling in line with the path of least resistance…down.

There are two key trends to be aware of:

1. Weakness in the Euro

It’s a big week for Europe with Germany electing a new president on Wednesday and the EC publishing its scorecard on how it will measure economic policies.

The scorecard will attempt to stop disasters such as Greece before they snowball. The missing link so far has been enforcement of any such laws. The question is whether the scorecard and measures will highlight any current failings or bush known issues under the carpet.

Ahead of all this, the euro is sinking once again. The EUR/USD is down 0.43%, the EUR/GBP down 0.56% and the EUR/JPY down 0.51%. Also see Forex Spread Betting.

2. Demand for Swiss Francs

Recently the Swiss National Bank intimated that it would be stopping its attempts to keep a lid on the Swiss Franc and let it trade without intervention. So far it looks as it is keeping to its word with the Swissy fast regaining its ‘safe’ currency status.

With the national bank interventions, the Swissy was trading closely with the euro, but in recent weeks the two currencies have been rapidly dislocating.

Yesterday afternoon the EUR/CHF hit a new record low, down 1.29%. Even if you create a synthetic euro from the old Deutschmark, the current moves are the biggest dislocation for generations.

The USD/CHF is also selling off as investors find the Swissy a safer harbour than the debt laden US dollar.

However, there’s still some way to go before previous lows from 2008 are breached.

By David Evans, Market Analyst, BetOnMarkets.

Euro Looking Resilient in the Forex Markets

Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010

Last week’s UK data were uninspiring but did no great damage. The euro shrugged off all sorts of bad news because it was not bad enough.

It was not an inspiring week for the pound, which covered a two-cent range between €1.21 and €1.19.

It was not quite five-a-day for sterling but the British economy managed to put together the best part of a handful of statistics every day. Monday’s economic growth and deficit estimates marked the first outing of the shiny new Office for Budget Responsibility, a triumvirate of economists whose task is not to lie about the country’s fiscal position in a way that politicians might be tempted to do.

The figures were heartening. Growth projections for the economy in the next couple of years, although lower than those of the Labour government, were credible. It also transpired that Britain’s borrowing needs could be smaller than Alistair Darling had feared.

Tuesday’s inflation figures came in on the low side of expectations. The consumer price index went up by +3.4% in the year to May, less than the +3.5% analysts had predicted and less still than the previous month’s +3.7%.

Wednesday’s employment data looked good on the surface, with the rate of unemployment ticking down to 7.9% and a 31k reduction in the number of dole claimants. There was also modest excitement at news of 5k more people with a job. However, those 5,000 jobs were among 61k part-time appointments; the number of full-time jobs fell by 56k. More than a million people are in part-time positions because they cannot find full-time work.

Thursday’s retail sales data provided another interesting social comment. Sales were +0.6% higher in May but the Office for National Statistics drew attention to the uplift cause by the football world cup. There was concern that the footy-related sales (shirts, St George’s flags with ‘ENGLAND’ across the middle of them, television sets) would mean an upturn in British imports and further deterioration of the trade balance.

Friday’s money supply and public sector borrowing figures showed the number of mortgage approvals still stalled at a low level and another £16 billion of government financial spread borrowings in May.

Euroland remained beset by less-than-positive news. This is also affecting the spread betting markets.

Monday kicked off with ratings agency Moody’s downgrading Greek sovereign debt to Ba1 (equivalent to BB+ at the other ratings agencies). Greek government bonds were no longer ‘investment grade’ securities: In market jargon they were ‘junk’.

The development did no particular damage to the euro. Nor was it damaged by a smaller-than-expected Euroland trade surplus, a flat jobs figure for the first quarter of the year or a sharp fall in German and euro zone economic sentiment.

Other events that failed to dent the single currency were a gloomy prediction by EU Commission president Barroso to trade unionists that ‘…if they do not carry out these austerity packages, these countries [Greece, Portugal, etc.] could virtually disappear in the way that we know them as democracies.

They’ve got no choice, this is it.’ In Spain the El Economista daily claimed that plans were well-advanced for a €250 billion bailout from the EU and the IMF. Elena Salgado, Spain’s finance minister, repudiated it, saying ‘It has been denied by the Spanish government, by the European Commission, and by the IMF. How much more can we deny it?’ Not enough, apparently. The story refuses to die.

The euro, however, showed an almost Teflon-suited ability to shrug off the bad news. As far as investors were concerned, none of the week’s accusations or data were sufficiently bad to provoke a new round of euro selling. It was just noise that they could ignore, fingers in ears, singing ‘La-la-la-la-la…’

FX Trading Update by www.moneycorp.com where you can open a free, no obligation Trading Facility.

US Dollar Trading Update

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Last week’s UK data were uninspiring but did no great damage, while the US numbers helped undermine the dollar.

The story from the States was largely similar to that of the previous week.

In essence, investors cannot really see the point of buying the dollar (or the yen, for that matter) when they are relaxed about the global economic outlook.

They can even less see the point when the US economy contrives to deliver downbeat economic statistics. There were not especially many of them, just enough to remind the market that it was leaving the dollar alone for the moment. Also see the spread betting markets.

The US Treasury’s TIC report on long-term capital flows showed inward investment falling by 40% to $83 billion in April. The NAHB housing market index, a barometer of confidence among house builders with a scale of 0-100, slumped from 22 to 17. US housing starts were down by 10% in May and building permits fell by 7%.

None of the figures was horrendous; it was just that none was good enough to encourage the dollar higher.

Weekly FX Review from www.moneycorp.com.

FTSE 100 Rallies 1% on Chinese Yuan News

Monday, June 21st, 2010

The move by China over the weekend to make the Yuan more flexible is a move towards market normalisation and this is being welcomed by investors.

The move was a bit of a surprise, and so naturally we have see a bit of a knee jerk reaction in the US dollar, which has fallen against a basket of currencies, whilst equities have traded largely positively with a higher demand for risky asset classes.

Given the amount of criticism Beijing has faced recently for continuing to peg its currency against the US dollar and thereby creating an unfair global trade imbalance, it seemed only a matter of time before the PBOC started to make its currency more flexible. The timing of the announcement is clearly a move to calm the likely US vigour ahead of the G20 meeting this weekend.

Much of the buying we have seen is centred on the miners. This is purely on the back of the move by China which has invigorated appetite for risk and a weakening of the US dollar. Copper prices have surged in early trading and this has followed through to mining stocks.

The top 8 risers on the FTSE 100 are all miners which speaks volumes as to where the energy is behind today’s gains in the UK’s benchmark Index.

BP Shares Fall Again

BP shares sold off by over 4% on Monday, after Anadarko accused the firm of being reckless and speculation that it could launch a legal case to refrain from paying its share of the spill costs.

BP’s shares could well bounce around like a cork in a bath for sometime now, with investors highly sensitive to any news over the spill, liability costs and fund raising.

 

Please remember that Spread Betting and CFD Trading are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that could quickly exceed your initial outlay. These products may not be suitable for everyone, so please make sure you fully understand the risks involved.

Spread Betting and CFD comments by Nick Serff, Market Analyst, City Index.

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Neither City Index not Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.

Spread Betting on Stocks and Shares During the World Cup

Friday, June 18th, 2010

The problem with trading shares around the World Cup is that much of the positive effect of the tournament will already be priced into the shares. Also if England perform poorly, or if they are just plain unlucky, then some of the more obvious buys become sells.

Having said that, with Financial Spreads you can speculate on stock markets and shares that are listed in some of the more consistent countries.

For example, looking at German shares an investor could speculate on the Adidas share price to increase. And there won’t be much getting away from Adidas this summer. They sponsor both Germany and France, they are official FIFA partners, they sponsor players like Lionel Messi and David Villa. They even supply the match balls.

It is also possible to spread bet on other European shares such as Carlsberg, however, the Danes are not the 2010 sponsors. In contrast, the US stock market does supply a few sponsors in the form of McDonalds and Coca Cola.

Another option is spread betting on the South African Stock Market to perform well. During the more recent World Cups the host nation’s leading Stock Market Index has performed well around the tournament.

Looking closer to home though, the shares of the various UK bookmakers are tempting but there are a few pitfalls. If England do not progress beyond the Group Stage then revenues will certainly be down. If England were to win the World Cup and Rooney were to pick up the Golden Boot, not an inconceivable combination, then the bookmakers could be facing some rather damaging payouts.

An Irish bookmaker like Paddy Power with less England specific exposure could be a less risky trade. Having said that Paddy Power also have a sports hedging business whereby a firm, eg a Furniture Company, offers its new clients a discount if England win the World Cup. The Furniture Company then hedges off that risk with Paddy Power. This additional exposure makes these particular Irish shares a less tempting proposition.

Elsewhere, the UK’s pub chains should experience reasonably brisk trade but again much of the upside could already be priced into the shares and there might be better value elsewhere.

Looking at the more traditional sports retailers like JJB and Sports Direct they also have positives and negatives. They should see increased England shirt sales but the supermarkets are increasingly active in that market. Tesco are even an official England sponsor for 2010. The extra sponsorship, shirts sales and mechanise should give the shares boost. Also the other positive for Tesco is that if the England team enjoys a good run that should further boost alcohol sales.

Adidas should not be ruled out and neither should trading the South African Stock Market however Tesco does have a few more strings to its bow. The supermarket also has fewer downsides and for that reason it is probably the stock to watch out for.

Financial spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose more than your initial investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Only speculate with money that you can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice where necessary.

Ladbrokes Launches Financial Spread Betting Platform

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

Ladbrokes, one of the world’s leading betting and gaming companies, today announced the launch of a new, unique financial spread betting service on its website.

The Ladbrokes Financial Spreads offering, developed in conjunction with WorldSpreads, is unique as it operates on a dual platform giving both new and experienced spread betting customers the option of using a service specifically tailored to their needs. Unlike certain other regular spread betting services Ladbrokes Financial Spreads offers new spread bettors the assurance of limiting their losses to the amount they have deposited in their Ladbrokes account by using the “Standard Platform”. Other advantages of the Standard Platform include free guaranteed stops, spreads as low as 1 point and the ability to buy or sell movements such as the day change on any one of the 18 most popular indices and currencies including UK100, Dax, Wall Street and Nasdaq.

An experienced spread bettor can switch to the “Advanced Platform” which has features including Trailing Stops to enable automatic management of your account. The Advanced Platform also enables spread bettors to trade using “Contingent Orders” where a trade is not activated until another separate order is executed (for example a buy order is not triggered until a separate sell order is completed). With the Advanced Platform a spread bettor can also be both long and short in the same market at the same time. The range of markets also extends beyond the leading indices to stock prices of the UK top 100 and 250 as well as leading Irish, European, US and South African companies. It is also possible to bet on the futures of these markets.

Ladbrokes has over 765,000 active customers on its sportsbook and the new spread betting service is aimed at appealing to these customers as well as new customers seeking an easy to understand financial spread betting service.

John O’Reilly, MD, Ladbrokes Remote Betting and Gaming said, “Ladbrokes customers now have the option of spread betting using a choice of platforms tailored to their level of experience and knowledge. We are committed to offering our customers the widest possible range of betting and gaming opportunities and financial spread betting is the latest demonstration of that commitment.”

Ladbrokes offers a single online wallet across sportsbook, casino, poker, bingo and financial spreads. As such money can be placed in a financial spread betting account at all times, not just when markets are open. Ladbrokes Financial Spreads is also offering customers up to £300 cashback on net losses made in the first 8 weeks of opening a spread betting account.

Ladbrokes Financial Spreads is a trading name of WorldSpreads Ltd. WorldSpreads Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration No: 230730.

About Ladbrokes:

Ladbrokes is a leader in the global betting and gaming market with over 2,700 betting shops in the UK, Ireland, Belgium and Spain. The Company also operates betting facilities at nine FA Premiership grounds and numerous racecourses, including Ascot.

In addition to its extensive retail presence Ladbrokes is a world leader in remote betting and offers thousands of betting markets on a daily basis over the telephone and the Internet. The telephone betting operation, utilising call centres in the UK and Malaysia, services over 100,000 customers, while the Company’s online betting and gaming facility, has attracted more than 765,000 active clients.

Betting is available in 21 languages and 18 currencies. The site incorporates the highest levels of security, which underwrite an integrated array of sports betting and gaming services available 24 hours a day, 365 days of the year.

The company, the origins of which date back to 1886, employs 16,000 people in six countries and is one of the worlds leading betting and gaming companies.

About WorldSpreads Group plc:

WorldSpreads Group plc (AIM: WSPR) is a fast growing financial services group offering online and telephone trading. The Group’s core activity is the provision of spread betting products on the financial markets to retail clients from its website.

World Spreads Limited, a wholly-owned trading subsidiary of WSPR, is regulated and authorised by the Financial Services Authority. It offers a full range of spread betting prices on all the major financial markets, including stock indices, individual shares, currencies, commodities and interest rates. The Group floated on the London Stock Exchange’s AIM market in August 2007 and gained a dual listing by joining the Irish Stock Exchange’s ESM market in May 2008.

Risk Warning

Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future.

Investor Sentiment Remains Volatile and FTSE Falls

Monday, June 7th, 2010

Investor sentiment continued to remain volatile going into the European close with equity markets seesawing between losses of 0.5 and 1 percent before closing on the latter for the day.

The Oil & Gas sector was the main drag on the FTSE 100 with BP reversing earlier gains to lose nearly 1 percent on the day. News from the US coast guard that the spill containment unit could possibly be disconnected in the event of a hurricane pushed the share price back to within touching distance of its recent low.

The miners were also weaker on the day, with the sector losing 2.2% and contributing much to the FTSE 100 weakness.

Wall Street came under pressure with the DOW managing to trade just shy of the psychologically important 10,000 level before slipping back to support at 9900. Investors continue to remain jittery after Fridays US jobs data fell well short of market expectations

The much better than expected German Industrial Orders data did help Indices to reverse much of the earlier losses, with the FTSE 100 trading flat at one point albeit briefly. However, in what has become a familiar trend over the last month or so, investors are all to happy to use rallies as opportunities to close positions out at high levels, and this forced the FTSE back down over 1% on the day.

 

Please remember that Spread Betting and CFD Trading are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that could quickly exceed your initial outlay. These products may not be suitable for everyone, so please make sure you fully understand the risks involved.

Spread Betting and CFD comments by Nick Serff, Market Analyst, City Index.

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Neither City Index not Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.

Bargain Hunting Boosts European Equities

Thursday, June 3rd, 2010

Investors were encouraged to buy back into shares today having seen a sharp recovery in the Dow Jones last night, which closed higher by 2.25%, and economic data reminded that the recovery remains on track.

Both factors helped to surge EU Indices higher by over 2% in early trading, helping to recover some of the ground lost earlier in the week.

The sharp rise in the US markets last night towards the close has certainly installed some confidence in Europe and this set us up for a positive opening.

Confidence has improved further by robust economic data with yesterdays Pending US Home Sales and today’s Euro zone PMI both beating market expectations, whilst the Final Services Employment Index showed the first jobs growth in 2 years.

Retail Sales out of the euro zone did however put a dampener on the day with sales plunging in April by 1.2% when a growth of 0.1% was expected. This was largely overlooked by the market however.

The recent economic data is helping to remind jittery investors who remain cautious over the sovereign debt situation in Europe that the economic recovery continues.

Investors have a strong gaze towards US labour data with ADP employment change announced later this afternoon and Non Farm Payroll’s due out tomorrow. The market is expecting tomorrow’s Non Farm Payrolls to be strong, with current expectations that they will show the strongest monthly jobs gain since September 1983.

Interestingly, this line was reinforced by President Obama yesterday which has helped to trigger investors into buying equities on the hope that tomorrow’s jobs data will in fact be strong.


BP Shares Rises on Bargain Hunting

We have seen investors coming in to pick up energy firms and miners after weakness this week. BP shares have been targeted by the bargain hunters particularly having seen its shares fall by as much as 37% since the start of the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico. BP shares currently top the FTSE 100 leader board, rising 4.5%.

 

Please remember that Spread Betting and CFD Trading are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that could quickly exceed your initial outlay. These products may not be suitable for everyone, so please make sure you fully understand the risks involved.

By Joshua Raymond, Market Strategist, City Index.

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Neither City Index not Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.