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Spread Betting Markets Rally on US Employment Data

Friday, September 3rd, 2010

As of 7am in London the spread betting markets were quiet ahead of the all important US Non Farm Payroll numbers at 13.30. The economic report is one of the major market moving events each month. A big deviation from expectation levels can set markets tumbling or shooting higher.

Tomorrow, the median analyst estimate is -101K, but its worth noting that payrolls have come in below estimates in each of the last three reports.

And as of yesterday, the EUR/GBP has extended its gains.

Afternoon report: Markets Rally on better than expected payrolls

US Non Farm Payroll numbers have given markets cause to extend the rally today with the FTSE 100 now above its August highs.

September is statistically one of the worst months on the stock market, but 2010 looks to be bucking that trend with big gains across the board. NFP came in at -54K vs consensus of -105K.

It hasn’t all been good news though with the unemployment rate unchanged and ISM Non manufacturing PMI coming in well below estimates. Goldman Sachs commented on the NFP saying the numbers were “better than expected but below the rate needed to keep the jobless rate stable”.

Perhaps this explains why forex financial spread betting markets are not displaying the same enthusiasm for risk taking as stock markets.

Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future

Commentary by David Evans, BetOnMarkets.

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Posted in Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Index Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Euro Spread Betting Market Benefits From Unloved Dollar

Thursday, September 2nd, 2010

Germany is still doing the legwork for the wider Euroland economy.

In spread betting Sterling had to hand back last the cent it had worked so hard to add a fortnight ago. Its range was only marginally wider than that but it started at the top and opened in London yesterday morning close to the bottom.

The week got off to a bad start after The Times published an interview with Monetary Policy Committee Member Martin Weale. Asked if Britain was on course for a double-dip recession, Mr Weale said, reasonably enough; ‘I think it would be foolish to say that there’s no risk of that.’ Had he left it at that no damage would have been done. However, he went on to list all the things that could cause that second dip: a renewed rise in unemployment, declining house prices, another banking crisis, a sovereign debt crisis, a new liquidity crisis in the private sector, tough fiscal tightening, higher levels of individual saving and lower consumer demand.

Looking at the financial spread betting data, the euro’s progress came largely as a result of investors’ dislike of the US dollar. Unusually, some weak US data (principally the sharp falls in new and existing home sales) sent the dollar lower. Since the beginning of the financial crisis it has tended to work the other way, with bad news for the global economy - wherever it comes from - sparking a rush for the perceived safety of the US dollar and Japanese yen. Last week’s experience suggests the dollar is no longer on that already short list.

If the ecostats from Euroland were adequate, Germany’s revised figure for second quarter GDP was more than adequate, with growth confirmed at 2.2%. Germany also eclipsed the wider euro zone with a two-point improvement in its services sector purchasing managers’ index (PMI). However, its manufacturing PMI was lower, together with both Euroland measures. German confidence, both among businesses and consumers, tended higher, although business expectations were less rosy in August than they had been in July. Consumer confidence in the euro zone as a whole improved by two points; that still left it at a negative 12 instead of -14.

Sterling and the euro both face challenges this week from the purchasing managers’ indices, an important barometer of how the manufacturing and services sectors are performing. The euro must also cope with the first revision to second quarter GDP, predicted to be unchanged with a quarterly expansion of 1.0%, and July’s retail sales figures, which could well show only anaemic growth.

 

Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

FX Trading Update by www.moneycorp.com where you can open a free, no obligation Trading Facility.

Posted in Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Spread Betting Markets Expecting a Good Day

Wednesday, September 1st, 2010

Two different views of the spread betting markets for you today:

According to BetOnMarkets:

  • Stock market futures are indicating a positive start to the day after a weak session yesterday.
  • Chinese Manufacturing numbers came in slightly above expectations, while Australian GDP smashed estimates to come in at 1.2%.
  • The mood has shifted to glass half full again with the yen under pressure and the Aussie dollar in demand. The AUD/JPY is up 1.12% and the AUD/USD up 1%.
  • Traders are also taking some money off the table on the Swiss franc as the currency gives back some of yesterday’s gains. The EUR/CHF is up 0.44% and the USD/CHF up 0.15%.
  • Gold is still in demand, trading above $1,250 briefly this morning. Gold has closed above this level only twice before.
  • Coming up today we have UK manufacturing PMI at 09.30. A slight dip is expected.
  • Following this we start the monthly jobs merry go round once again at 13.30 with the release of US ADP employment data. This is often (not always) a good steer for Friday’s more important Non Farm Payrolls.
  • We also have US ISM manufacturing at 15.00.

And according to Spreadex:

A positive start to the day, with FTSE up currently 80 points, starting its positive drive from around 9.30am onwards and now broken the 5300 mark.

Top riser is Cable and Wireless, up near 11% followed by the miners.

Chinese manufacturing picked up after a downward trend and Australia’s economy grew at the fastest rate in 3 years. However, manufacturing in Europe appears to be cooling and UK PMI came out below forecasts.

Markets are still data driven at the moment and very fickle, so today’s gains could easily turn depending on data from the US.

ADP employment data will set the tone for the afternoon, and there is the continual manufacturing theme at 3pm, the markets will be cheering any signs that the US Economy isn’t grinding to a halt as recent data as would suggest.

Dow Futures are up 97 so it looks like the markets are expecting it to be a good day for the markets.

 

Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Posted in Commodities Spread Betting, Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Gold Spread Betting, Index Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Record Low for EUR/CHF

Tuesday, August 31st, 2010
  • In spread betting, US stock markets sold off steadily the close with the Dow Jones closing down 1.39%.
  • The wider S&P 500 closed below Friday’s open, erasing the rally.
  • Japanese stocks experienced heavy selling with the Nikkei closing down 3.20%.
  • The glass has shifted back to being half empty with the US dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc in demand as safe haven/carry trade unwind trades.
  • The risk barometer, the AUD/JPY is down 0.3%, with the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY down 0.6%.
  • The Aussie dollar is actually holding up reasonably well with the AUD/USD break even for the day. This comes on the back of stronger than expected Australian retail sales and building approvals.
  • The EUR/CHF has plunged to a new record low of 1.2934. Will the Swiss National Bank intervene this time as it has done on similar spike downs?
  • One way to play this would be to predict that the EUR/CHF won’t revisit the record low again in the next 24 hours using a No Touch Trade. A No Touch trade predicting that the EUR/CHF won’t touch 1.2934 in the next day could return 367%. If already hit, try a level 20 pips below.
  • Coming up today we have Canadian GDP at 13.30 a slight M/M rise to 0.2% is expected.
  • Following this we have US CB consumer confidence at 15.00 and the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting at 19.00.

Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future

Commentary by David Evans, BetOnMarkets.

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Posted in Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Index Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Mixed Views on the Spread Betting Markets

Friday, August 13th, 2010

According to BetOnMarkets, “US markets held their ground last night, but still finished well below the previous day’s close.

This morning looks more positive, with stock market futures indicating a positive session ahead in the US and a flat open for Europe.

The safe havens of the yen, US dollar and Swiss franc are out of favour as traders rotate into other currencies.

The yen has continued its slump against the US dollar, falling another 0.2% today.

This morning’s biggest gainer is the New Zealand dollar, with the Aussie not far behind. The NZD/USD is up 0.86%, while the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are up 0.50% and 0.68% respectively.

Coming up today we have German GDP at 07.00 with a rise to 1.3% expected.

Today’s main event is US inflation (CPI) and retail sales released at 13.30 with slight improvements expected.”

The spread betting companies are seeing things from a differrnet angle, according to Spreadex. “Savvy investors are cleaning up in the aftermath of the two-day sell-off, but we think the majority of buying has abated after the open, and a relatively mild day is expected in the absence of any market-moving data from the UK.

We may see some small bumps and jumps this afternoon from US retail and CPI data. If these figures buck the recent softening trend, it could allow the spread betting index to refocus on reaching the 5400-level again for next week, where it has found continued resistance.

Aviva has been a popular buy, up 4.8% this morning, with high volumes contributing 1.8 pts to the FTSE’s 35-point gain. Small-cap hydrocarbon acquisition firm Caza Oil & Gas also attracted significant speculative attention at the open, jumping up 62%”.

Spread Betting Note:

Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Posted in Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Index Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Spread Betting: US Dollar Still Looking Weak

Wednesday, August 11th, 2010

Dollar still on the retreat after weak employment figures.

Sterling added another two cents over the last week. Most of the gains came in the first two days with the rest of the week spent in consolidation. It opened in London yesterday morning at the top of its range facing strong psychological overhead resistance.

It was a strange sort of a week for sterling, particularly in the spread betting markets. Despite making one small error after another it came through virtually unscathed. Except against the euro, where it lost a couple of dozen ticks, sterling was either steady or higher this morning compared with last Monday’s starting level. Its best result was the two cents it gained against the US dollar.

While sterling had another good week the dollar had another bad one. Where investors were ready to forgive the UK economy its occasional wobble they seemed to watching, hawk-like, for any sign of weakness in the US.

They did not have to look too hard. Monday’s manufacturing sector PMI, like Britain’s, went backwards from 56.2 to 55.5. Tuesday’s personal income and personal spending figures were both zeros; neither had changed between May and June. Factory orders fell by -1.2% in June. Pending home sales (contracts exchange but yet to complete) were down by -2.6% in June after a -30% fall in May. The one chink of light was a half-point improvement in the services PMI, which went up to 54.3 in July and was worth a quick half-cent to the dollar.

One chink was not enough though, and the benighted dollar ended the week on a low note after the important monthly Employment Report delivered much softer figures than expected. The loss of 131k jobs was twice as bad as the market had been expecting and there was no easy way to put a positive spin on it.

Even harder to gloss over was the downward revision to June’s non-farm payrolls figure; instead of the -125k announced a month ago there were -221k job losses. Comparing net outcome with net expectations, that meant 162k fewer working people than the market had anticipated.

To put it another way the outcome was two and a half times worse than predicted. Even the unchanged 9.5% unemployment rate was suspect (as it is in Britain and elsewhere) because it fails to take into account those who have given up on finding a job and dropped out of the reckoning - this is something that the online spread betting markets did not fail to notice.

In the last couple of weeks sterling has overcome everything that has been put in its way. Or, more accurately, the dollar has fallen through every line of support that might have held it steady. Sterling’s biggest test this week will be Wednesday’s UK employment figures. Over the last three months unemployment has been going down.

If investors hear the same story again they should be able to maintain their modestly positive attitude to sterling but they would be far less enthusiastic about any reversal of that trend.

FX Trading Update by www.moneycorp.com where you can open a free, no obligation Trading Facility.

Posted in Forex Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Spread Betting Markets Move Higher But for How Long?

Tuesday, August 10th, 2010

With positive momentum continuing to lift the indices higher, the need to sustain support levels is becoming more important for the bulls.

Technical indicators remain bullish but chart patterns may be telling a different story.

As we approach key resistance levels the markets are now getting to a decision point on price, pattern and time. What lies for the weeks ahead?

FTSE 100 approaches the 5435 level

With the FTSE 100 holding 5215 – 5170 support level in last week’s trading, the stage appears to now be set for to tackle 5435 resistance level. The index maintained its stance above the 20 period Moving Average.

However even with a positive close on the week’s trading session we note that the momentum index has only had a minor uptick. More importantly the move up is now counting 5 waves which typically appears before a correction. The index will need to hold 5245 to possibly reach for 5610 in the coming weeks.

Dow Jones holding key 10630 level

The spread betting bulls managed to hold a week of volatile price action as the bearish attempt to take prices lower failed. Sustaining the 10200 support level and more importantly holding 10594 the index is looking to clear 10630.

Also sporting a 5 wave advance in the current move and a flat momentum line may suggest the move up may be approaching exhaustion. The bulls must hold 10395 and clear 10630 to tackle 10800 – 10900.

Crude Oil breaks above $80 after 3 months

Elsewhere in the financial spread betting markets, the September Nymex Crude Oil contract held $75.00 to lift the contract higher after a 3 month battle for higher prices. Now that the commodity has managed a break of $80.00 will we see the $100 level?

The stochastic indicator is clearly flat lining at its upper level. A pullback to $78 may be healthy and create a base for Oil to head higher towards $85 - $90 over the next few weeks.

The $100 mark may prove to be a tough obstacle for the short term. However, as long as the commodity stays above the $80 channel we cannot negate the chance of significantly higher prices.

Please remember that Spread Betting and CFD Trading are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that could quickly exceed your initial outlay. These products may not be suitable for everyone, so please make sure you fully understand the risks involved.

Spread Betting and CFD comments by Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst, City Index.

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Neither City Index not Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.

Posted in Commodities Spread Betting, Crude Oil Spread Betting, Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Index Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Spread Betting Markets Looking at a Strong Start to the Week

Monday, August 9th, 2010

So far the markets are quiet as we start the new trading week. Aside from some mild strength in the British pound, there’s not much to speak of so far.

The FTSE and other European stock markets are likely to open up strongly, but that will primarily be down to playing catch-up with the late session recovery on US markets from Friday.

There’s no meaningful economic data to come today. We’ve already had Australian home loans data, which came in below estimates, but this appears to have had little impact on the AUD/USD.

Here’s a heads up of the main announcements for the first half of the week.

Tuesday:

We have the Japanese central bank’s latest monetary policy statement. No surprises are expected from this, but the following press conference may reveal a few tip bits that reveal how the bank is feeling about certain problems such as the strong yen.

Any hints of currency intervention (or lack of) could impact forex pairs such as the USD/JPY.

Tuesday’s main event is the US Federal Reserve interest rate statement. No change is expected on the headline rates, but the big question is what the Fed will be doing with the cash it is now receiving in interest payments from the mortgage bonds it purchased.

Will it buy more bonds with the cash, adding more liquidity? Or will it start to withdraw from the market and simply let the cash payments build up?

Either way, in for the forex spread betting markets it could be a big day for pairs such as the GBP/USD and USD/JPY.

Also don’t miss the Chinese Trade Balance data schedule for release some point on Tuesday.

Wednesday:

Wednesday’s highlights include the Chinese inflation data at 03.00 GMT, following by UK unemployment claims figures at 09.30. Will the new UK government’s austerity measures start to bite as expected? Keep an eye on the GBP/USD.

By Dave Evans, BetOnMarkets.

Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Posted in Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Index Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Will the Dollar Get a Boost in the Spread Betting Markets?

Thursday, August 5th, 2010

Today is all about monetary policy meetings with the UK, Czech Republic and the Eurozone committees all deciding on levels for interest rates for the next month.

As with previous months it is a fairly common view that both the MPC and the ECB will decide to leave their respective rates on hold, resolving to also leave the levels of QE unchanged as well.

For the MPC, that will be it for a week or so until the minutes of the meeting are released. I would expect Andrew Sentance to once again prove to be the lone dissenter for leaving rates unchanged although it would be a shock if there was not evidence of protracted discussion amongst the members over the stubbornly high level of inflation and its effect on the UK economic outlook. This is also the first meeting attended by Martin Weale therefore the minutes will also be awaited to discover his thoughts and voting intentions.

The state of affairs is different with regards the ECB meeting as the announcement of the committee’s decision is followed almost immediately by a press conference conducted by the Central Bank’s President, Jean-Claude Trichet. Despite Trichet’s best efforts to make this as mundane as possible, the assembled press and news agency representatives work on a different agenda and the market tends to hang on his every response, looking for clues and intimations of future ECB policy.

Finally, the Czech Central Bank will decide at midday whether they are to cut their official rates in response to the recent strong rise in value of the Koruna. Smart money says they will, by 25 basis points.

Over to the US and an unusual string of encouraging numbers yesterday largely supported both the greenback and ensured that US Treasury yields rebounded across the curve. The non-manufacturing ISM index rose more than expected to 54.3 in July and the new orders and employment indexes also increased, which suggests the economy passed through the recent economic slowdown without too much damage being caused.

The ADP private payrolls estimate rose by 42,000 in July versus a consensus view of about 35,000 which bodes well for tomorrow’s more important non-farm payrolls number and although investors still appear cautious on the outlook for the US economic recovery, the sentiment has visibly improved.

A strong number tomorrow could see a marked change in the spread betting attitude towards the Dollar.

Outside of the policy meetings we are left with little economic data to watch out for. The German factory orders should show a strong increase and following the ADP report yesterday, the US weekly jobless numbers are hoped to show a drop in claims from last week.

Spread Betting Note:

Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future

Written by currencies direct.

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Posted in Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Spread Betting: Dollar Close to All Time Low Versus the Yen

Wednesday, August 4th, 2010

This morning, stock and forex markets look set to follow on from yesterdays main trends with risking taking on the back foot and the yen in the driving seat.

In the spread betting market the USD/JPY is hitting fresh monthly lows, with the all time low of ¥84.82 around 50 pips away.

The yen is strong across the board, not just against the US dollar. The EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are down 0.50%.

This morning the biggest faller is the AUD/JPY which is perhaps telling given that there has been some strong data from Australia this morning. The markets appear to be selling off despite the good news, which may be an ominous sign.

Australian Trade balance shot up to 3.54bn vs the 1.81 expected. In addition the Australian House Price index came in above expectations. However none of this has been enough to shift the gloom this morning.

Trading Today

We start the European session with UK Halifax House Price data (Another drop expected) and services PMI at 09.30.

Today’s main event is the US ADP Non Farm employment change. A big improvement is expected and hoped for on last month’s release. ISM manufacturing follows at 15.00.

Posted in Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

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