Mixed Views on the Spread Betting Markets

Written by Matthew on August 13th, 2010

According to BetOnMarkets, “US markets held their ground last night, but still finished well below the previous day’s close.

This morning looks more positive, with stock market futures indicating a positive session ahead in the US and a flat open for Europe.

The safe havens of the yen, US dollar and Swiss franc are out of favour as traders rotate into other currencies.

The yen has continued its slump against the US dollar, falling another 0.2% today.

This morning’s biggest gainer is the New Zealand dollar, with the Aussie not far behind. The NZD/USD is up 0.86%, while the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are up 0.50% and 0.68% respectively.

Coming up today we have German GDP at 07.00 with a rise to 1.3% expected.

Today’s main event is US inflation (CPI) and retail sales released at 13.30 with slight improvements expected.”

The spread betting companies are seeing things from a differrnet angle, according to Spreadex. “Savvy investors are cleaning up in the aftermath of the two-day sell-off, but we think the majority of buying has abated after the open, and a relatively mild day is expected in the absence of any market-moving data from the UK.

We may see some small bumps and jumps this afternoon from US retail and CPI data. If these figures buck the recent softening trend, it could allow the spread betting index to refocus on reaching the 5400-level again for next week, where it has found continued resistance.

Aviva has been a popular buy, up 4.8% this morning, with high volumes contributing 1.8 pts to the FTSE’s 35-point gain. Small-cap hydrocarbon acquisition firm Caza Oil & Gas also attracted significant speculative attention at the open, jumping up 62%”.

Spread Betting Note:

Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Posted in Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Index Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Spread Betting: US Dollar Still Looking Weak

Written by Matthew on August 11th, 2010

Dollar still on the retreat after weak employment figures.

Sterling added another two cents over the last week. Most of the gains came in the first two days with the rest of the week spent in consolidation. It opened in London yesterday morning at the top of its range facing strong psychological overhead resistance.

It was a strange sort of a week for sterling, particularly in the spread betting markets. Despite making one small error after another it came through virtually unscathed. Except against the euro, where it lost a couple of dozen ticks, sterling was either steady or higher this morning compared with last Monday’s starting level. Its best result was the two cents it gained against the US dollar.

While sterling had another good week the dollar had another bad one. Where investors were ready to forgive the UK economy its occasional wobble they seemed to watching, hawk-like, for any sign of weakness in the US.

They did not have to look too hard. Monday’s manufacturing sector PMI, like Britain’s, went backwards from 56.2 to 55.5. Tuesday’s personal income and personal spending figures were both zeros; neither had changed between May and June. Factory orders fell by -1.2% in June. Pending home sales (contracts exchange but yet to complete) were down by -2.6% in June after a -30% fall in May. The one chink of light was a half-point improvement in the services PMI, which went up to 54.3 in July and was worth a quick half-cent to the dollar.

One chink was not enough though, and the benighted dollar ended the week on a low note after the important monthly Employment Report delivered much softer figures than expected. The loss of 131k jobs was twice as bad as the market had been expecting and there was no easy way to put a positive spin on it.

Even harder to gloss over was the downward revision to June’s non-farm payrolls figure; instead of the -125k announced a month ago there were -221k job losses. Comparing net outcome with net expectations, that meant 162k fewer working people than the market had anticipated.

To put it another way the outcome was two and a half times worse than predicted. Even the unchanged 9.5% unemployment rate was suspect (as it is in Britain and elsewhere) because it fails to take into account those who have given up on finding a job and dropped out of the reckoning - this is something that the online spread betting markets did not fail to notice.

In the last couple of weeks sterling has overcome everything that has been put in its way. Or, more accurately, the dollar has fallen through every line of support that might have held it steady. Sterling’s biggest test this week will be Wednesday’s UK employment figures. Over the last three months unemployment has been going down.

If investors hear the same story again they should be able to maintain their modestly positive attitude to sterling but they would be far less enthusiastic about any reversal of that trend.

FX Trading Update by www.moneycorp.com where you can open a free, no obligation Trading Facility.

Posted in Forex Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Spread Betting Markets Move Higher But for How Long?

Written by Matthew on August 10th, 2010

With positive momentum continuing to lift the indices higher, the need to sustain support levels is becoming more important for the bulls.

Technical indicators remain bullish but chart patterns may be telling a different story.

As we approach key resistance levels the markets are now getting to a decision point on price, pattern and time. What lies for the weeks ahead?

FTSE 100 approaches the 5435 level

With the FTSE 100 holding 5215 – 5170 support level in last week’s trading, the stage appears to now be set for to tackle 5435 resistance level. The index maintained its stance above the 20 period Moving Average.

However even with a positive close on the week’s trading session we note that the momentum index has only had a minor uptick. More importantly the move up is now counting 5 waves which typically appears before a correction. The index will need to hold 5245 to possibly reach for 5610 in the coming weeks.

Dow Jones holding key 10630 level

The spread betting bulls managed to hold a week of volatile price action as the bearish attempt to take prices lower failed. Sustaining the 10200 support level and more importantly holding 10594 the index is looking to clear 10630.

Also sporting a 5 wave advance in the current move and a flat momentum line may suggest the move up may be approaching exhaustion. The bulls must hold 10395 and clear 10630 to tackle 10800 – 10900.

Crude Oil breaks above $80 after 3 months

Elsewhere in the financial spread betting markets, the September Nymex Crude Oil contract held $75.00 to lift the contract higher after a 3 month battle for higher prices. Now that the commodity has managed a break of $80.00 will we see the $100 level?

The stochastic indicator is clearly flat lining at its upper level. A pullback to $78 may be healthy and create a base for Oil to head higher towards $85 - $90 over the next few weeks.

The $100 mark may prove to be a tough obstacle for the short term. However, as long as the commodity stays above the $80 channel we cannot negate the chance of significantly higher prices.

Please remember that Spread Betting and CFD Trading are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that could quickly exceed your initial outlay. These products may not be suitable for everyone, so please make sure you fully understand the risks involved.

Spread Betting and CFD comments by Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst, City Index.

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Neither City Index not Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.

Posted in Commodities Spread Betting, Crude Oil Spread Betting, Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Index Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Spread Betting Markets Looking at a Strong Start to the Week

Written by Matthew on August 9th, 2010

So far the markets are quiet as we start the new trading week. Aside from some mild strength in the British pound, there’s not much to speak of so far.

The FTSE and other European stock markets are likely to open up strongly, but that will primarily be down to playing catch-up with the late session recovery on US markets from Friday.

There’s no meaningful economic data to come today. We’ve already had Australian home loans data, which came in below estimates, but this appears to have had little impact on the AUD/USD.

Here’s a heads up of the main announcements for the first half of the week.

Tuesday:

We have the Japanese central bank’s latest monetary policy statement. No surprises are expected from this, but the following press conference may reveal a few tip bits that reveal how the bank is feeling about certain problems such as the strong yen.

Any hints of currency intervention (or lack of) could impact forex pairs such as the USD/JPY.

Tuesday’s main event is the US Federal Reserve interest rate statement. No change is expected on the headline rates, but the big question is what the Fed will be doing with the cash it is now receiving in interest payments from the mortgage bonds it purchased.

Will it buy more bonds with the cash, adding more liquidity? Or will it start to withdraw from the market and simply let the cash payments build up?

Either way, in for the forex spread betting markets it could be a big day for pairs such as the GBP/USD and USD/JPY.

Also don’t miss the Chinese Trade Balance data schedule for release some point on Tuesday.

Wednesday:

Wednesday’s highlights include the Chinese inflation data at 03.00 GMT, following by UK unemployment claims figures at 09.30. Will the new UK government’s austerity measures start to bite as expected? Keep an eye on the GBP/USD.

By Dave Evans, BetOnMarkets.

Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Posted in Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Index Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Spread Betting Markets Are Looking Up

Written by Matthew on August 6th, 2010

The stock markets appear to be consolidating around current levels with the UK’s FTSE 100 Index failing yet again to make headway above 5400. At the same time though the FTSE 100 is showing no wish to drift below the 5340/50 level either.

This small range is making for rather tiresome spread betting for all those trading with IG Index and the other spread betting companies.

No doubt bulls will be hoping that the current lull is just a pause before the market gathers its collective breath for a push higher. Of course those selling the market via spread betting will be gathering evidence that investors are losing their enthusiasm at these levels.

The current price is 5350, at the bottom of the more recent range, and the investors who are financial spread betting are busily closing out the short positions that they set up at the highs.

This short-termism is paying off as the senior UK index continues to flatter to deceive. Nevertheless with the slower summer months still dragging on volumes, it is difficult to get too exited about a move in either direction.

Looking at the US markets, the Dow Jones has finally managed a whole session above 10,600. Of course after that session the market dropped and continually flirted with the same 10,600. Looking back over the last couple of months, 10,580/95 proved quite a barrier to overcome, as such, it would be rather disappointing if we were to give up on it quite so easily.

All this means is that investors will be watching any approach to the 10,580/95 price support level as a buying opportunity. Of course, any such buying should be done with caution just in case the price support fails spectacularly.

Spread Betting Note:

Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Posted in Financial Markets, Index Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Will the Dollar Get a Boost in the Spread Betting Markets?

Written by Matthew on August 5th, 2010

Today is all about monetary policy meetings with the UK, Czech Republic and the Eurozone committees all deciding on levels for interest rates for the next month.

As with previous months it is a fairly common view that both the MPC and the ECB will decide to leave their respective rates on hold, resolving to also leave the levels of QE unchanged as well.

For the MPC, that will be it for a week or so until the minutes of the meeting are released. I would expect Andrew Sentance to once again prove to be the lone dissenter for leaving rates unchanged although it would be a shock if there was not evidence of protracted discussion amongst the members over the stubbornly high level of inflation and its effect on the UK economic outlook. This is also the first meeting attended by Martin Weale therefore the minutes will also be awaited to discover his thoughts and voting intentions.

The state of affairs is different with regards the ECB meeting as the announcement of the committee’s decision is followed almost immediately by a press conference conducted by the Central Bank’s President, Jean-Claude Trichet. Despite Trichet’s best efforts to make this as mundane as possible, the assembled press and news agency representatives work on a different agenda and the market tends to hang on his every response, looking for clues and intimations of future ECB policy.

Finally, the Czech Central Bank will decide at midday whether they are to cut their official rates in response to the recent strong rise in value of the Koruna. Smart money says they will, by 25 basis points.

Over to the US and an unusual string of encouraging numbers yesterday largely supported both the greenback and ensured that US Treasury yields rebounded across the curve. The non-manufacturing ISM index rose more than expected to 54.3 in July and the new orders and employment indexes also increased, which suggests the economy passed through the recent economic slowdown without too much damage being caused.

The ADP private payrolls estimate rose by 42,000 in July versus a consensus view of about 35,000 which bodes well for tomorrow’s more important non-farm payrolls number and although investors still appear cautious on the outlook for the US economic recovery, the sentiment has visibly improved.

A strong number tomorrow could see a marked change in the spread betting attitude towards the Dollar.

Outside of the policy meetings we are left with little economic data to watch out for. The German factory orders should show a strong increase and following the ADP report yesterday, the US weekly jobless numbers are hoped to show a drop in claims from last week.

Spread Betting Note:

Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future

Written by currencies direct.

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Posted in Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Spread Betting: Dollar Close to All Time Low Versus the Yen

Written by Matthew on August 4th, 2010

This morning, stock and forex markets look set to follow on from yesterdays main trends with risking taking on the back foot and the yen in the driving seat.

In the spread betting market the USD/JPY is hitting fresh monthly lows, with the all time low of ¥84.82 around 50 pips away.

The yen is strong across the board, not just against the US dollar. The EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are down 0.50%.

This morning the biggest faller is the AUD/JPY which is perhaps telling given that there has been some strong data from Australia this morning. The markets appear to be selling off despite the good news, which may be an ominous sign.

Australian Trade balance shot up to 3.54bn vs the 1.81 expected. In addition the Australian House Price index came in above expectations. However none of this has been enough to shift the gloom this morning.

Trading Today

We start the European session with UK Halifax House Price data (Another drop expected) and services PMI at 09.30.

Today’s main event is the US ADP Non Farm employment change. A big improvement is expected and hoped for on last month’s release. ISM manufacturing follows at 15.00.

Posted in Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Stock Market Spread Betting: Short Term Spike or More Upside to Come?

Written by Matthew on August 3rd, 2010

Although the markets closed lower in last week’s trading we have seen an upturn on momentum. This would suggest that the move to the downside may be a temporary pullback.

Since the start of 2010 we had witnessed a decline from the January highs suggesting bearish factors were in play. However the month of July proved that the bulls may be back in control.

The key question is are we seeing a short term spike up or is there more upside potential?

FTSE 100 clears above 5331 level

Previously the FTSE 100 had played out a Double Top pattern at the 5331 level. A narrow pullback reversed the bearish pattern to clear above the resistance level and now seems to be heading towards the 20 day moving average for potential support.

But we note that the MA is pointing towards the upside. The conflict we have is that momentum has turned lower. Immediate price action would require the index to stay above 5215 – 5170 to tackle 5435 as the upside key objective.

Dow Jones flirting with 10594

Once again the Dow Jones spread betting market has attempted to break above the important 10594 level. Initial resistance at 10385 has been cleared but the index needs to turn positive fairly quickly in order to maintain a chance at aiming for the 10630 level.

If we continue to see higher highs then a possible attempt towards 10906 may be on the cards.

The 10200 mark remains important support coinciding with the 20 day Moving Average otherwise the floor could open for a potential decline towards 9915.

Short term momentum is positive which should help the index remain positive as long as we hold 10200.

Crude Oil may breakout to the upside soon

The September Nymex Crude Oil contract has managed to get back above the 20 day Moving Average and see a positive turn on the momentum index.

Long term the commodity is still trading within a channel of $70-$80 but recently Oil has spent more time above the 20 MA rather than below.

This may be hinting that further upside potential may be on the cards.

For now as long as we stay above $75.00 the upside objective becomes $80.00 - $83.60

Please remember that Spread Betting and CFD Trading are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that could quickly exceed your initial outlay. These products may not be suitable for everyone, so please make sure you fully understand the risks involved.

Spread Betting and CFD comments by Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst, City Index.

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Neither City Index not Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.

Posted in Commodities Spread Betting, Crude Oil Spread Betting, Financial Markets, Index Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

Where are the Forex Spread Betting Markets Heading?

Written by Matthew on July 30th, 2010

In the forex spread betting markets the Euro continues to battle higher against the dollar without seeming to be able to sustain the critical move above the $1.3000 level.

We have now been hitting the $1.3035/50 area for weeks. Occasionally we pull back down a bit but the forex spread betting market always returns to this mark.

Standing on the sidelines it is possible to see from the various data that the market is still, even after a 10¢ reversal, short of Euros. This lopsidedness is continuing to have an effect on market direction.

At the moment it is not the US Dollar bears who are continually under pressure as they were throughout the first half of 2010. Currently the boot is very much on the other foot. Every move higher for the Euro/Dollar rate puts more short-sellers under water. It’s also interesting to note that we have now almost entirely reversed the “break out Sovereign debt move” which started around the beginning of May. This can clearly be seen in the charts you get from FinancialSpreads.com and IG Index.

Looking in more detail the Euro has price resistance at $1.30035 and above here more resistance around $1.3110. To the downside the price support is building nicely circa $1.2965 and also around the $1.2880 mark.

The Pound is also looking bullish against the US Dollar and is having its own battle a little north of the $1.5600 level.

Investors are selling the spread trading Sterling/Dollar market at all prices above $1.5600 and are building up heavy short positions. The recent move up to $1.5650 has probably proved worrying for these short sellers. Nevertheless, just like the Euro, the attempted break higher ran out of steam.

It’s difficult to judge where the Sterling/Dollar market is going however shorting the market is dangerous. For now, the momentum is definitely Sterling bullish.

Risk Warning

Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future

Posted in Financial Markets, Forex Spread Betting, Index Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

European Spread Betting Markets See Late Sell Off

Written by Matthew on July 28th, 2010

Weakness in energy stocks and a late sell off in the banking sector forced European markets lower on Wednesday with the FTSE, DAX and CAC all lower by over 0.5%.

Today has been largely about profit taking. The FTSE 100 spread betting market has rallied almost 13% since the start of the month and investors have been happy to start banking their gains. With the end of the month approaching too, naturally there could be a bit of position settlement and from a technical perspective there is a bit of resistance at 5400 on the FTSE.

BG weighs

BG shares weighed on the FTSE Index after the gas firm reported a $443m non-cash charge, which pushed net earnings down 21% to $602m whilst production fell 2%. Shareholders were left unimpressed by the results and sold some of their holdings in the gas company, forcing shares down by as much as 40p to a new 3 week low.

Late sell off in banks

There was a late sell off in the banking sector with Lloyds the main faller after the bank suspended plans to sell its 60% stake in St James’s Place Capital.

Earlier in the session, banks had received a boost after the sector was upgraded by Deutsche Bank to neutral, from underweight. However, with the banking sector having rallied over 20% since the start of the month, hitting a new 3 month high today, investors have been particularly eager to start banking their healthy profits and this is playing a large part of today’s weakness.

Please remember that Spread Betting and CFD Trading are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that could quickly exceed your initial outlay. These products may not be suitable for everyone, so please make sure you fully understand the risks involved.

Spread Betting and CFD comments by Joshua Raymond, Market Strategist, City Index.

The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.

Neither City Index not Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.

Posted in Financial Markets, Index Spread Betting, Spread Betting, Spread Betting News | No Responses »

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