Better Than Expected US Payrolls Boost Index Spread Betting Markets
Posted on | January 6, 2012 | No Comments
Today saw a very strong US payrolls number across all accounts including non farms, private and the US unemployment rate.
| Consensus | Actual | |
| Non Farm Payrolls | 150,000 | 200,000 |
| Private Payrolls | 160,000 | 212,000 |
| Unemployment Rate | 8.7% | 8.5% |
This is a really good set of results and does come in line with the general theme of US economic data improving sharply over the last month or so.
Spread betting investors had been expecting a strong number but perhaps not as strong as this and stocks have been given a fillip to push higher as a result.
A recovery in the US labour market is a key element needed to boost US growth and general economic health. Whilst this jobs numbers is not heralding a confirmation of this yet, it is a strong step in the right direction.
Europe looks to the US for strength and so this is a good number for index spread betting markets in general.
Considering the leap in payrolls, it will be very interesting to see if there are any revisions to this number in a month’s time, which should not be discounted given the volatility revisions have shown lately.
As such it may be naïve to take today’s figures as a sign that the US labour market woes are over and we would certainly need to see new jobs created of over 250,000 on a constant basis to help ratify that goal.
Non Farm Payrolls and Private Payrolls both sharply surpassed market expectations by a distance with the US unemployment rate hitting its lowest level in nearly three years (February 2009). This is the biggest rise in non farm payrolls since April last year.
The payroll numbers for now have triggered a higher appetite for risk amongst investors.
Consequently, this pushed the FTSE 100 higher by 0.5% in the minutes immediately following the release of the figures, with riskier stock sectors such as the miners and financials benefiting particularly.
Please remember that Spread Betting and CFD Trading are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that could quickly exceed your initial outlay. These products may not be suitable for everyone, so please make sure you fully understand the risks involved.
Spread Betting and CFD comments by Joshua Raymond, Chief Market Strategist, City Index.
The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.
Neither City Index nor Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.
Suspension of Italy’s UniCredit Shares Pull Financial Spread Betting Markets Down
Posted on | January 5, 2012 | No Comments
European spread betting markets have edged lower with the financial sector dragging on the equity markets following the temporary suspension of Italy’s UniCredit shares earlier in the day.
France’s bond auction was deemed a success as it garnered fairly solid demand although the borrowing costs were slightly higher, rising to 3.29% against the 3.18% yield offered in December’s auction.
The almost daily rumours in respect of France’s AAA rating persist nonetheless and have managed to dampen any real positive sentiment.
The technology sector was the leader today with chip maker ARM Holdings gaining ground as UBS placed upgraded the stock to “buy” stating that it expects the company’s fourth-quarter results to surpass consensus expectations.
Following the improved construction and manufacturing data in the UK this week, strengthened services data provided the UK economy with a hat-trick rising to 54 from 52.1 in November.
Despite a weak retail sector, there is a renewed optimism that the UK may be decoupling from the Eurozone crisis to some extent and may see a better Q4 GDP figure.
US markets have dropped lower following a two day rally as disappointing earnings forecasts from JC Penney and Co. and Target Corp. weighed on stocks.
The economic docket on the other hand, provided investors with a plethora of positive news suggesting in some ways that the worst of the recessionary impact was nearing an end.
ADP employer Services reported a much better than anticipated rise to 325,000 against expectations of 178,000 and continuing jobless claims fell back by 15,000.
Worth noting however, is that seasonal adjustments or the lack thereof for the Christmas holiday period have tended to skew this data in the past.
The Non Farm Payrolls due tomorrow will as always be the provide the bigger clues tomorrow on the overall employment picture.
In forex spread betting, the biggest faller was the Australian Dollar following reports that the nations’ services industry had declined for a third month alongside news that it’s trade surplus had narrowed.
The US dollar has pushed higher today outperforming across the board on the back of its safe haven status.
Sterling has remained quite resilient rising to a 16 month high against the euro and the decent services data.
The euro has had a torrid day with the single currency sharply lower and trading against both sterling and the dollar at levels not witnessed since September 2011.
In oil spread betting, prices dropped back from their highs on global growth concerns and despite news that EU member states had agreed in principle to impose the oil embargo on Iran.
Given the surge in recent days, a certain amount of profit taking cannot be discounted either.
Gold prices have eased back a little today on the back of dollar strength with the 200 day MA still acting as a cap against any move above $1632.
Copper prices have retreated also, adding weight to the notion that the New Year rally was more than likely a short-lived affair.
Please remember that Spread Betting, FX and CFDs are leveraged products and carry a high level of risk to your capital. It’s possible to lose more than your initial investment. These products may not be suitable for all investors, please ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Spread Betting, FX and CFD comments by Michael Hewson, Market Analyst, CMC Markets.
The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.
Neither CMC Markets nor Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.
Spread Betting: Markets Rally After Better Than Expected US Manufacturing Data
Posted on | January 4, 2012 | No Comments
The markets have taken a pause for breath after the rally to kick start the new year yesterday driven by better than expected US manufacturing data and traders will be poised to take advantage of the next significant news flow.
An oversubscribed German debt sale or further positive economic data from the US this afternoon in the form of factory orders may provide additional impetus for the new year optimism.
The details of Bernanke’s open communication strategy unveiled yesterday is yet to boost the markets as there is some criticism to its impact on investor confidence.
The plan is to clearly delay expectations of interest rate rises although the full disclosure of rate forecasts may highlight any rifts between policy members and unnerve the spread betting markets.
Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future.
Article by Spreadex
The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.
Spread Betting: Markets Already at Resistance Levels after Bullish Start
Posted on | January 3, 2012 | No Comments
A positive start for the markets has seen stock indices rally into resistance levels which will require further bullish momentum to provide headway for further gains.
With a potential bullish pattern developing, the markets could see a sharp rally ahead. This would see a strong start to January which could suggest a potential turnaround after a disappointing 2011.
However there are probably some steep bumps ahead and the bears will be looking to drag the markets lower at any opportunity available.
Meanwhile Gold has fallen lower into the expected price target and could see weakness in the week ahead unless it clears upside barriers.
FTSE 100 holding steady at 5600
Currently the FTSE 100 holds onto the initial resistance level of 5445. Now that the index has reached 5600 the key will be to sustain this level for the week ahead and target the upside barrier at 5820.
For now the index has proven its bullish case and will need to ensure that support at 5460 is not breached. The potential bullish Head & Shoulder pattern is still developing and it would be interesting to see how this week pans out to see this pattern materialise. The real key is to smash through 5820 and aim for 6000 this quarter and possibly 6250 as a main objective.
Dow Jones reaches target
After clearing 11819 the Dow Jones spread betting market made headway and broke through 11930 as expected. The bullish scenario has rewarded us with the index now at its key target of 12350. What happens from this point will be interesting.
Basically the Dow is within a tight channel of 12350 - 12140 which once broken should reveal its next play of action. If the 12350 is cleared the next objective comes in at 12545.
However we will need to watch closely for false breaks and a reversal below 12140 which could see the Dow fall back towards 12000 and possibly re-test the 11735 level.
Gold continues bearish play
As expected, Gold fell into the month end of December. After falling through support at $1,680 the downside objective of $1,575 had been reached with a low in at $1,523 so far.
For now the commodity will need to clear above $1,615 and $1,645 to turn around for a short term reversal. But traders will need to watch the $1,575 support level which if breached again may indicate that there could be further downside ahead.
It could be that Gold may be reaching for $1,500 - $1,475 if the metal weakens this next week or so. The trend remains bearish until it clears $1,645 for now.
Please remember that Spread Betting and CFD Trading are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that could quickly exceed your initial outlay. These products may not be suitable for everyone, so please make sure you fully understand the risks involved.
Spread Betting and CFD comments by Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst, City Index.
The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.
Neither City Index nor Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.
Spread Trading: Successful Italian Auction Could Alleviate Dangers of Euro Break-Up
Posted on | December 29, 2011 | No Comments
Another day of low volume could provide some volatility today especially if the Italian debt auction and US jobless claims and home sales can give any surprises.
The euro stabilizing below 1.30 after its sell-off yesterday signals spread trading investors are still cautious ahead of the Italian debt sale this morning despite a successful shorter-term maturity auction yesterday.
No doubt the debt crises will cause further setbacks in the coming months although the feeling is these hitches will have a diminishing impact. This is mainly due to the fact that banks are now recapitalized, governments have endeavoured to provide greater deficit transparency and the ECB have promised unlimited liquidity.
A successful longer-term Italian debt auction today will instil further confidence in the handling of the situation and help alleviate any dangers of a euro break up.
Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future.
Article by Spreadex
The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.
Spread Betting: Europe Sees Less Volatility After Banks Lend to IMF
Posted on | December 28, 2011 | No Comments
The Spread Betting Markets - Last Week:
The trading week started with the announcement of the death of the revered dictator Kim Jong-il causing both a large media stir and a fall off in Asian markets.
The price of Crude Oil shot back up breaching the $100 a barrel mark by Friday with fears reigning over what his replacement Kim Jong-un’s first move could be.
European spread betting markets saw a less volatile week with steady gains aided by the Eurozone lending 150 billion euros to the IMF and the ECB’s super-long-term liquidity facility offered to European banks. Italian banks were seen to jump most at this opportunity taking up 25% of the approximate 490 billion euros offered.
Gains of 2.5% for the week were seen on the FTSE 100 at the Friday market open on the build up to Christmas.
GDP figures came in at 0.6%, a slight improvement on the long forecasted 0.5% prediction however the UK market should be concerned with the Q3 Current Account deficit which at 15.2bn is the highest level ever seen since records began.
Alike to European markets, the American index spread trading markets also saw steady gains with the Dow up 3.5% on the week.
This followed US lawmakers agreeing to approve a $1 trillion budget measure to fund the daily running of federal agencies designed to keep the government running smoothly till next September.
Data from the week was mixed with quarterly growth coming in at 1.8% which was slightly lower than anticipated and lower than forecast Existing Home Sales.
However, this was far better than expected Unemployment Claims, possibly as a product of seasonal employment in the festive period.
In a week of steady market movements, two mining stocks saw large price movements. Weekend reports with regards to Gulf Keystone stated that Exxon were preparing a huge £7bn (800p per share) bid for the oil and gas exploration company.
Share price soared to an all time high of 225.54p in the first few minutes of Monday trading before falling off when the rumour was said to be baseless by the company themselves.
Central Rand Gold rose 155% to a high of 1.6p on Thursday after they received a consent order from the South African high court to have their mining right reinstated.
Whilst Exxon’s bid proved unfounded IAG’s offer of £172.5M for BMI seems to have sustenance but opposition. Fears over job losses and dominance of the market by IAG as a result of the deal have led to voiced concerns from British Airways owners biggest rival Virgin Airways.
The £211m takeover of Evolution by Investec finally went through with shareholders in Evolution getting 0.23124 shares in Investec for every one held in Evolution.
Black Leisure continues to struggle to find a buyer for its equity as bidders continue to see no value in the dwindling stock. The company believes that any offer will be attributable to the ordinary shares only.
The Spread Betting Markets - The Coming Week:
A Christmas hangover prolongs in Europe and as such there is no data coming out. America is also quiet with just Consumer Confidence out on Tuesday and Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales out on Thursday. A quiet week for equities with no blue chips reporting next week.
Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future.
Article by Spreadex
The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.
Positive Weekly Jobless Claims Boost US Spread Betting Markets
Posted on | December 22, 2011 | No Comments
Equity markets have been in a much more buoyant mood across the board today, albeit against the backdrop of very light pre-holiday volumes.
UK markets saw riskier assets trade broadly higher with the financial and commodities sector topping the leader board.
Banks managed to pare back ground on yesterday as spread betting markets seemed to take a more up-beat view on the increased liquidity as a result of the European Central Bank LTRO.
Lloyds and RBS have been the standout performers today.
The airline sector has seen a much needed lift on the back of M&A activity today. British Airways parent company, International Consolidated Airlines Group following the agreement to buy British Midland from Deutsche Lufthansa AG for GBP 172.5m.
The deal, which is set to increase IAG’s slot portfolio by 56 at Heathrow is subject to approval by the European Commission. Virgin’s Richard Branson has also been more than vocal regarding his objections to the potential BA monopoly.
US markets took their cues from Europe and also opened higher.
Weekly Jobless claims in the US helped underpin the bullish mood falling by 4,000 to 364,000 and surpassing expectations of an increase of 380,000.
The figure, the lowest since April 2008 is good but with seasonal effects and some companies still trimming back on staff it may not necessarily mean that the US is out of the woods just yet.
The downward revision in growth to 1.8% from 2.0% for U.S. GDP for the third quarter was shrugged off as something to be consigned to the history books.
With the recent raft of decent economic data from the US it would appear that investors are reckoning on the Q4 GDP figures as compensation.
Meanwhile in FX spread trading, the best performing currencies have been the Canadian dollar and the Kiwi rebounding on the firmer commodity prices.
Sterling has been fairly flat today in spite of an upward revision of Q3 GDP growth to 0.6% from 0.5%.
The single currency has also found the going tough despite the passing of the Italian austerity budget through the Italian senate today.
Gold prices while momentarily breaking above the 200 day MA yesterday haves failed to make any headway above $1621 as safe haven interest has waned.
In crude oil spread betting, both Brent and WTI have climbed today. WTI has been capped by the psychological $100 a barrel as investors hover between confidence on US data, and fears about further European austerity measures.
Possible disruptions to global crude supplies have also underpinned prices as tensions rise with respect to the alleged nuclear ambitions of Iran.
Copper prices have moved up also but the 55 day MA resistance suggests that the upside is likely to remain fairly muted.
Please remember that Spread Betting, FX and CFDs are leveraged products and carry a high level of risk to your capital. It’s possible to lose more than your initial investment. These products may not be suitable for all investors, please ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Spread Betting, FX and CFD comments by Michael Hewson, Market Analyst, CMC Markets.
The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.
Neither CMC Markets nor Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.
Stock Market Pullback Leaves Spread Betting Indices with the Potential to Rally
Posted on | December 21, 2011 | 1 Comment
After a standard pullback in last week’s trading, we now have the potential to rally this week.
The stock indices are in a position to trade higher from current levels but will need some strong momentum to really see any meaningful thrust higher. Most likely we will probably have a narrow range week but with a bullish bias.
As index spread betting traders prepare to wind down positions over the Christmas holidays, there could be some choppy price action along the way.
Gold has reached the downside objective and may see a push higher this week but in cautious trading as the short term trend is now in bearish mode.
FTSE 100 needs to trade above 5600
Currently the FTSE 100 is trading below its 5600 resistance level. This does not look good for the bulls who will need to lift the index above 5445-5600 in order to tackle the 5820 level again.
For several weeks now the index has traded sideways which has been frustrating. The current position may be setting up a bearish Head & Shoulder pattern that could turn nasty for a 2012 start.
Interestingly we also see a potential reverse Head & Shoulder pattern taking place at the same time. The consolidation pattern will at some point breakout and likely to turn into a substantial move either way. This is a move not to be missed.
Dow Jones holding support at 11680
Friday’s trading session has created a potential reversal pattern that could see the Dow Jones spread betting market trade higher this week. But we will need to see the Dow stay above 11819 for the bullish play to occur.
If on the flipside the index fails to hold on to this minor support then the 11680 support level could provide a base level for key support. On the upside the Dow may look for 12090 once it has cleared 11930.
Similar to the UK FTSE 100 the Dow could also see a bullish Head & Shoulder come into play which could even carry the Dow much higher than the target of 12350 but here again a clear breakout is required fairly soon.
Gold reaches downside target
The expectation of lower prices for the gold spread betting has been satisfied. The worry is that if the $1575 support level does not hold then the potential for lower prices still exist until the end of the month.
For the price of Gold to edge upwards the barrier at $1680 may prevent the commodity from making new highs. Of course if the stock indices fall according to the potential bearish patterns then Gold may resume its longer term bullish move.
Please remember that Spread Betting and CFD Trading are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that could quickly exceed your initial outlay. These products may not be suitable for everyone, so please make sure you fully understand the risks involved.
Spread Betting and CFD comments by Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst, City Index.
The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.
Neither City Index nor Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.
Index Spread Betting: Positive German Data and Successful Spanish Bond Auction Lift Markets
Posted on | December 20, 2011 | 1 Comment
European spread betting on index markets were largely mixed on Tuesday. The FTSE 100 lost a small amount, whilst both the DAX and CAC saw gains of 0.8% after a successful Spanish bond auction and a better than expected German IFO survey.
Data out of Germany this morning showed that the IFO business survey beat market expectations, with the business climate figure surprisingly rising to 107.2 from 106.6 when a small fall had been expected.
Current conditions remained flat, when a fall had also had been predicted by most, whilst expectations, the forward looking part of the survey, rose strongly past consensus of 97.3 to 98.4.
The German data gave stocks a fillip to push higher, whilst a successful Spanish short-term bond auction also supported shares into the latter stages of the morning session.
Spain sold 3-month and 6-month treasury bills with yields falling sharply from a previous similar auction whilst bid to cover ratios remained healthily strong. The yield on the 3-month bill fell from 5.110% to 1.735% whilst the yield on 6-month bills sold fell from 5.227% to 2.435%.
Whilst the Spanish bond auction is being seen positively, clearly there is an impact on its ‘success’ from the commencement of the ECB’s first ever three-year LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation), with allotments confirmed tomorrow.
Trading is once again choppy, a likely theme this week, with the majority of spread betting traders sitting on the sidelines now for the holiday period and this is exacerbating market moves and clouding true market sentiment.
From a sector perspective, we have seen early gains in resource stocks weighed somewhat by weakness in oil and financial firms. RBS shares continue to tumble in the face of government support for banking reform measures.
Astrazeneca double drug blow
Pharmaceutical stocks have been dragged lower by investor disappointment in blue chip Astrazeneca, which told shareholders today that it will take a $381.5m pre-tax charge for the fourth quarter.
This comes after disappointing results for its new cancer drug at the mid-stage clinical trial, whilst at the same time its anti-depressant drug failed to meet its goals at a second Phase 3 study.
The double drug disappointment is a big blow to shareholders as the pharmaceuticals giant attempts to develop and market new drugs to help cater for a fall in sales and recent patent setbacks.
Astrazeneca shares topped the fallers list on the FTSE 100 as a result, losing 2.3%, dragging down the shares of peer GlaxoSmithKline with it.
Please remember that Spread Betting and CFD Trading are leveraged products that carry a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses that could quickly exceed your initial outlay. These products may not be suitable for everyone, so please make sure you fully understand the risks involved.
Spread Betting and CFD comments by Joshua Raymond, Chief Market Strategist, City Index.
The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.
Neither City Index nor Spread-Betting.org warrant or represent that the material is accurate, complete, not misleading, or fit for the purpose which it is intended and it should not be relied upon as such.
Forex Trading: Euro Falls to 11 Month Low After S&P Downgrades 10 Spanish Banks
Posted on | December 19, 2011 | No Comments
The Spread Betting Markets - Last Week:
The further west one looks right now, the safer the markets appear. Ratings agency S&P downgraded 10 Spanish banks, and the EUR/USD fell to an 11-month low after continued cash hoarding at the European Central Bank.
Fears that credit lines are drying up held the common currency down at the 1.30 level. The only good news out of the region was a better than expected German ZEW reading of -53.8, which demonstrated that the probability of recession is decreasing.
Both inflation reports from the UK were in line with forecasts of +0.2%, but UK unemployment hit a 17 year high. On the other hand, US jobless claims fall to 3 ½ yr low, and Fed Chairman Bernanke expressed confidence in recovery when he announced that no new stimulus plans were on the table.
Financial spread betting stock markets led the news last week, with Canadian investment bank Canaccord set to buy stockbroker Collins Stewart Hawkpoint in a £253m takeover.
Lloyds CEO Antonio Horta Osario said he plans to return to the helm on January 9 after taking six-weeks leave to recover from stress. Reductions in the direct reporting line are expected to minimise micromanagement and allow him to focus on more strategic changes to the government-owned lender.
The long-awaited report on why Royal Bank of Scotland nearly collapsed was finally released with no big surprises. Former Chief Fred ‘the Shred’ Goodwin was criticised heavily not just for his ‘punt’ on the ABN Amro takeover but for his general mismanagement.
Many members of the public have since expressed anger at the lack of sanctions imposed in the aftermath. The FSA was also blamed for its soft-touch regulation.
In the retail sector, Sports Direct reported a 2% rise in underlying earnings in the half year, which was up against the same period last year, an impressive feat considering that period covered the World Cup.
Investors in SuperGroup dumped shares after a series of supply chain issues led to profit dissipation. Travel operator Thomas Cook began selling Spanish hotels and golf courses to shore up finances, and small-cap technology developer Pursuit Dynamics reported a widened FY loss, leading Chief Executed Roel Pieper to resign.
The Spread Betting Markets - The Coming Week:
A lot of macro news has to be crammed into this week ahead of the Christmas holidays, including the Bank of Japan rate announcement and Merchandise Trade report on Tuesday, a UK GDP revision on Thursday.
US Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income and Outlays and New Home Sales come on Friday. It will be a fairly quiet week for equities though, with no blue chips in Europe reporting, and only Nike, Oracle and Walgreens among S&P 500 constituents.
Spread betting is a leveraged product. It carries a high level of risk to your capital and, as it is possible to lose more than your initial investment, it may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, ensure you understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. The tax treatment of spread bets may be subject to change in the future.
Article by Spreadex
The above should not be construed in any circumstances as a recommendation or offer to sell or recommendation or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument.