Spread Betting and Technical Analysis
A basic principle of spread betting is that you do not actually take delivery of physical shares, currencies or commodities, rather, you are speculating on the future price movements of these trading instruments.
If you correctly predict the direction of the price movement, you will make a profit. If you are wrong, you will make a loss. The trick is of course to be right rather than wrong. What can a trader do to enhance his/her chances of correctly predicting market movements?
If you are spread betting on shares, for example, you could study fundamental factors that you believe will affect the company share price. With shares spread betting fundamental factors typically include company profits, revenues, new product launches, exchange rates, inflation etc.
While fundamental factors naturally play a significant role in the long term movement of prices, many traders argue that for short term trading they are less useful for predicting price movements.
A whole science has developed around so-called technical indicators: statistical formulas, usually graphically depicted. Their aim is to predict future price movements based on past price behaviour.
Whether technical analysis is actually useful for predicting what will happen to future prices is a matter of debate. The principles behind technical analysis are that:
- All the fundamental factors are already priced into the markets
- The price of any trading instrument will follow certain behaviours over time and often in recognisable patterns that can be used to predict future price movements
As a result, theoretically, it is not necessary to review all the financial reports, market information, latest news etc. simply because such aspects are already reflected in the current market.
Nevertheless, whilst this can be a rapid and convenient form of market analysis, the main downside is the fact that any such analysis is predicated on historical information and data. Just because a given price has been rising, that does not necessarily mean that the market will continue to rise.
Spread Betting and Technical Analysis Charts
A trader using technical analysis bases his/her opinion on spotting price movements within historic price data. This particular kind of analysis is purely numbers based and consequently charts are important.
Due to the fact that a good number of candlestick charts, from companies such as FinancialSpreads, enable you to review market movements in 1,2, 5, 10, 30 and 60 minute time periods then technical analysis more often than not draws in traders who like to speculate over short time periods.
Most spread betting companies offer users charts, see the table below for more details.
Charting may also be available with other companies - notes.
Spread Betting Technical Analysis - Daily Technical Analysis
For the latest daily technical analysis for a particular market please see:
Stock Market Technical Analysis
Forex Technical Analysis
Commodities Technical Analysis
Using Fundamental Analysis When You Spread Bet
A spread bettor who trades using fundamental analysis will generally base a spread bet on news events to which they believe the market in question will react. This approach is not restricted to financial results and economic news, and can include everything from weather forecasts to political developments.
For instance, if Britain was to set for a heat wave, a fundamental spread bettor might expect an ice cream company's price to rise.
This method of spread betting requires up-to-the-minute knowledge of relevant news information, not to mention a firm understanding of the knock-on effects of various industry scenarios.
Even then, fundamental spread betting is not flawless, as there are so many factors that affect the markets that cannot be taken into account with the analysis, so risk management is vital.
Using Technical Analysis When You Spread Bet
Technical analysis in financial spread betting is based on spotting trends in past data, such as previous price patterns and trading volume. Because it is based on statistics it lends itself to charting and works for spread betting timeframes of all lengths, making it popular with the increasing number of day traders who spread bet on minute-to-minute market movements.
As a rule technical analysis generally excludes financial reports, economy news or other fundamental information, as from a technical analyst's perspective these factors are all already reflected in the price.
In sharp contrast to fundamental analysis, which can be time-consuming, technical analysis can whittle down one's options within minutes. It can also inform stop loss and limit order decisions. The major disadvantage though is obvious; technical analysis is based on what has happened, not what is going to happen or even what is happening.
Using Technical and Fundamental Analysis When You Spread Bet
There is also a third option regarding technical and fundamental analysis when it comes to interpreting the spread betting markets. Fundamental and technical analysis can actually be used together, combining current events with historical form, although it is common for a spread bettor to favour one over the other.
Technical Analysis Example
The bull run we have seen in the Euro since the middle of February seems to have lost most of its steam since the beginning of May.
On the 5th and the 6th of May we saw two rather sharp declines in the price, which brought it below the blue Kijun Sen line of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in the chart below.
It subsequently broke out again on the 2nd of June, but soon dipped back into the Ichimoku cloud again.
Now it is marginally above the cloud, indicating that the spread betting market still has some of its original bullish sentiment left.
Looking at the chart below we see that on the 5th of July the market experienced another down day.
Going strictly according to the forex analysis provided by the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, the market is still technically in a bull phase.
The green Chinkou Span line is still marginally above the price 26 periods ago, the price is still above the cloud and it is also above the blue Kijun-Sen and red Tenkan-Sen lines.
These lines are currently, however, in the cloud. The Kijun-Sen has also turned flat, which indicates the market does not have a lot of momentum at present.
A cautious forex spread betting trader would wait for a stronger signal before entering into a long trade. If the price moves above the recent high of $1.46956 it reached on the 7th of June, it might be a good time to go long again.
Right now is way too early for short trades. A cautious trader would wait for the market to drop back into the cloud and emerge downwards.
It would be advisable to wait for a second indicator, such as the blue Kijun-Sen line also breaking out of the cloud in a downward direction before going short.
Article by InterTrader, originally written on 5 July.
Spread Betting and Technical Analysis - edited by MJ, 21 August 2013.
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